The No. 21 Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-7) and the Santa Clara Broncos (20-12) battle in a West Coast Conference semifinal Monday. Tip from Orleans Arena in Las Vegas is set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Saint Mary’s is No. 21 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll (a new poll will be released Monday afternoon). The Gaels are the No. 1 seed in this tournament despite losing to the Gonzaga Bulldogs 70-57 in their regular-season finale March 2.
The Gaels, who were 3.5-point home favorite in that loss, finished 15-1 in WCC play, while the Bulldogs took 2nd at 14-3. Prior to that defeat, Saint Mary’s won 16 in a row, included 2 wins over Santa Clara.
Saint Mary’s beat Santa Clara by 34 (73-49), covering as a 6.5-point road favorite Jan. 13, and by 5 (82-77), failing to cover as a 13.5-point home fave Jan. 31. The Gaels are 16-13 ATS on the season. G Aidan Mahaney averages a team-high 13.7 points per game (PPG).
Santa Clara, the No. 4 seed in the WCC Tourney, beat the San Diego Toreros 104-79 Saturday in a quarterfinal, covering as an 11.5-point favorite. The Broncos has covered in 6 of their last 8 and are 6-1-1 ATS in that span. They are 17-11-2 ATS on the season.
Santa Clara has won 5 of its last 7 games. G Adama Bal leads the Broncos in scoring at 14.8 PPG.
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Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Santa Clara +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | Saint Mary’s -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Santa Clara +9.5 (-114) | Saint Mary’s -9.5 (-106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 134.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 68, Santa Clara 64
Moneyline
PASS.
The Gaels are the better team and dominated the Broncos on the road earlier in the season. They should come out on top but aren’t worth a play at -500.
Against the spread
BET SANTA CLARA +9.5 (-114).
The Broncos are playing for their season while the Gaels should be able to make the NCAA Tournament even with a loss here. That should add intensity for the lower seed. Santa Clara has covered in 3 of its last 4 games and has better shooters in its top scorers.
All 3 of Santa Clara’s players who averaged double figures in scoring shot 43% or better. Saint Mary’s leading scorer was under 40% as Mahaney hit at a 38.4% clip. The Broncos are surging at the right time and have the efficiency to keep up with the Gaels’ potent offense.
TAKE SANTA CLARA +9.5 (-114).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 134.5 (-112).
Santa Clara has allowed fewer than 70 points in 4 of its last 7 games. It has gone Under in 7 of its last 9 and is 14-17 O/U on the season. The Broncos averaged just 63.0 points per game in their 2 regular-season losses to the Gaels.
Saint Mary’s is coming off a 57-point showing against Gonzaga at home in its last game and has gone 4-4 O/U in its last 8. Considering the trends for both sides, BACK UNDER 134.5 (-112).
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