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NET ranking (through Tuesday): 33, up from 40 the day before, which represents a significant rise.
BracketMatrix.com average seed: 9.56, projected No. 10 seed (Does not account for Texas Tech win)
Quadrant 1: 5-7 | Quadrant 2: 2-2 | Quadrant 3: 2-1 | Quadrant 4: 7-0
Strength of schedule (per WarrenNolan.com): 30 | Non-conference strength of schedule: 198
Best win: Texas picked up a fifth Quadrant 1 win Tuesday night at Texas Tech, but the best win on the resume remains Baylor back on Jan. 20. The Bears have a NET of 14 and a KenPom rating of 14, so at least statistically, that win stands above the rest.
Worst loss: Texas has a Quadrant 3 loss on its resume to West Virginia on Jan. 13. It has avoided a second Quadrant 3 loss this month with home wins over the Mountaineers on Feb. 10 and Kansas State on Feb. 19. After playing a light OOC schedule, and with the Big 12 being a monster, there is not even a good second option for Texas’ worst loss of the season.
Biggest opportunities: With three regular-season games remaining, the Longhorns project to have one more Q1 opportunity, Monday at Baylor. The March 9 regular-season finale vs. Oklahoma currently projects as a Quadrant 2 opportunity.
Can’t lose: The lone projected Q3 game remaining on the schedule is Saturday vs. Oklahoma State. That is also the only remaining game on the slate that can badly damage a resume that is not superior, but is enough to, as of now, be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament. That would change with a loss to the Cowboys.
Remaining schedule: March 2, vs. Oklahoma State (Q3), March 4 at Baylor (Q1), March 9 vs. Oklahoma (Q2)
LoneStarLive.com’s final regular-season record projection and analysis: 20-11 overall, 9-9 Big 12
Texas had entered legitimate bubble trouble after losing at Kansas, which dropped the Longhorns to 8-10 vs. the first three quadrants. The win Tuesday night at Texas Tech could not have been any bigger at this point in the season. That marked a fifth Q1 victory, and another road victory in a season that has included wins at Cincinnati, Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech.
The Longhorns have been inconsistent in the Big 12, but their work on the road is pulling them towards the right side of the bubble, with a clearer path to the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday.
The mandate remains the same as it has for weeks: Do not lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday. If Texas can accomplish that, it will likely secure an at-large berth. Assuming that win, a split of the last two regular-season games, at Baylor and vs. Oklahoma, would merely be a bonus as Texas is then jockeying for seeding, and to ultimately avoid the First Four in Dayton.
