No president has any direct control over the stock market, in spite of the fact that many claim that a booming stock market is a result of their own actions. But it’s certainly true that governmental trade policies, tax changes and even offhand presidential comments can affect how specific stocks or even the market overall perform over the short term. This is particularly true in the case of Donald Trump, who is famously outspoken and who references the stock market’s performance more than most presidents.
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Regardless of your own view on politics, as an investor, it’s important to keep your eye on all potentially market-moving events, including the November 2024 presidential election. If Trump were to be re-elected, he may reinstate some of the policies from his first term and this could affect big tech stocks like Apple, among others. With that in mind, here’s a look at how Apple did under Trump’s presidency and how another term might affect your Apple investment.
Also see how another Biden presidency might affect your Apple investment.
How Did Apple Perform Under Trump?
Trump’s first day in office was January 20, 2017. On that day, Apple closed at a price of $27.88. When Trump handed over the reins to Joe Biden on January 20, 2021, Apple closed at $129.57. This amounts to a return of 365%.
An interesting note is that Apple’s share price as of April 24, 2024 was just $169.02, meaning in the three-plus years since Trump left office, Apple has “only” returned 30%.
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How About the S&P 500’s Performance?
Apple is often the biggest stock in the S&P 500, but as it has fallen in 2024 as the broad market has advanced, it has slipped to the number two position, behind tech giant Microsoft. Still, Apple comprises 5.76% of the entire S&P 500, so it can have a huge effect on the market overall.
Thus, even if you only own an S&P 500 index fund and don’t own Apple directly, any Trump policies affecting Apple can also push your investment higher or lower. By way of reference, the S&P 500 index returned 67% during President Trump’s term.
Will Trump’s Policies Hurt Apple?
Trump already has a complicated relationship with Apple and that’s likely to continue if he’s re-elected in November. When Trump unleashed his stiff tariffs on China — one of the signature policy pieces of his term in office — Apple got caught in the crossfire, as China is one of its biggest suppliers. As the company tried to find a way to avoid paying tariffs, as reported by The New York Times, Trump laid down the gauntlet in a July 26, 2019 tweet, saying “Apple will not be given Tariff waiver, or relief, for Mac Pro parts that are made in China” and that the company should “Make them in the USA, no Tariffs!”
However, over time, Apple managed to avoid most of these tariffs. In August 2019, Trump said “I had a very good meeting with Tim Cook […] Tim was talking to me about tariffs and one of the things, he made a good case, is that Samsung is their number one competitor and Samsung is not paying tariffs because they’re based in South Korea. And it’s tough for Apple to compete with a very good company that’s not.” Ultimately, Apple was able to avoid tariffs on its flagship iPhone, iPad and MacBook products and by March 2020, the Apple Watch joined that list as well.
Whether or not these exemptions hold up if Trump is re-elected is anyone’s guess. As Lee Munson, president of Portfolio Wealth Advisors said, “Biden has not been friendly to China, but Trump’s going to be even worse…When you look at Trump, he’s mercurial…” What this means is that it’s a gamble whether or not Trump will reinstate tariffs and if they will directly affect Apple this time around.
What Should You Do With Apple If Trump Is Elected to a Second Term?
Whether the next president will be Trump or Biden is just one of the factors you should consider when looking at a stock like Apple. While things like tariffs and Department of Justice investigations can affect individual stocks, many things beyond a president’s control, such as interest rates, inflation, geopolitical turmoil and corporate earnings also play a big role in determining stock prices. For example, while tariffs on China might be an impediment for Apple, falling interest rates and/or inflation, as many predict for 2024 and 2025, would be tailwinds for the stock.
If you’re a long-term investor, you should take into account who’s in the White House, but you should balance this against product development and long-term earnings trends. If you believe Apple is an innovative company that can survive, adapt and continue to grow in any environment, then it shouldn’t matter if Trump wins re-election or not. On the other hand, if you feel Apple’s best days are behind it, you should likely sell the stock no matter who the president is.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: How Another Trump Presidency Might Affect Your Apple Investment
