Bengaluru: A group of researchers from Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) and Indian Institute of Science (IISc) has recommended the resumption of local trains in Mumbai from June with 30% capacity, based on a model that predicts measures for the city to handle a spurt in Covid-19 positive cases with the existing health infrastructure.

The City-Scale Epidemic Simulator, which uses SAP’s technology platform, has been modelling datasets – such as number of cases in April and percentage of death; cases in slums and nonslums etc in Mumbai and Bengaluru. Once the information and practices are modelled across different locations in a city, the simulator would be able to predict the number of hospital beds or ICUs required.

“Nearly 7.5 million people travel by (local) train in Mumbai in normal times. There is a massive amount of interactions and we don’t know how bad it can get.

So, you have to start slow, with 20-30% of the occupancy initially,” Sandeep Juneja, Professor and Dean, School of Technology and Computer Science at TIFR told ET.

“Then, you see the experience and in three-four weeks how many infections (cases of Covid-19) are coming from local trains and then you can project how soon you can increase from 25% to say 50%, and whether the city is adequately prepared,” he added.

A detailed report with various recommendations should be out in one or two weeks, he said. India put in place a nationwide lockdown for more than two months to reduce the spread of the pandemic and delay the burden on its healthcare facilities.

READ  Rebuilding America: North Jersey car sales plummet from COVID-19, but dealerships are optimistic -

In the fourth phase of lockdown, states have been advised to observe strict guidelines and closure of containment zones.

Sindhu Gangadharan, managing director of SAP Labs India, said the simulator would empower local authorities to improve preparation for health, logistics, demand and supply situations.

“It is important that we look at such interventions to slow down the spread of the virus and help the government authorities to take the right measures,” said Gangadharan.

The simulator also factors in the age of citizens across different locations in a city, said Rahul Lodhe, senior director, SAP Labs.



Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here